Israel and the N.I.E. report
December 12, 2007
Last week's U.S. "National Intelligence Estimate" report dropped a diplomatic and security bombshell on Israel. Its shock waves are still being felt.
While the report itself seemed to reach contradictory conclusions, its opening line stole the headlines: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003,Teheran halted its nuclear weapons program."
It's this opening line that many Israelis fear takes a U.S. military option against Iran off the table. It certainly undermines Israel's intelligence estimates. For example, the Mossad claims Iran will be able to develop a nuclear bomb by 2009. Israel's military intelligence warns Teheran will cross the technological threshold within six months.
Ehud Olmert highlighted these divergent U.S. and israeli views during the first Cabinet meeting after the report's release. He reiterated Israel's position and said Israel plans to provide concrete evidence that Teheran is still developing nuclear weapons. Israel simply does not buy the N.I.E. report's bottom line.
Israel defense and intelligence officials also used a rare visit by the U.S. Chief of Staff Mike Mullen on Sunday and Monday to present their own intelligence on Iran's nuclear military program.
On the foreign front, Israel took heart when French President Nicholas Sarkozy told visiting Bibi Netanyahu Monday that he still favors stronger sanctions against Iran. Sarkozy added that the world must continue to press Iran over its nuclear program.
CBN News talked with a former high-ranking Israeli official to get his reaction. He said the report was highly questionable and loaded with political objectives. He pointed out that the U.S. report failed to account for Iran's parallel secret nuclear program, which British, French and Israeli intelligence services know exists.
It poses three risks to Israel:
- Its minimizes the need for tougher sanctions.
- It gives Iran a free hand.
- It makes Israel look like the problem for raising the alarm on Iran.
He added that Israel would respond to Iran militarily, alone if necessary. For Israel, it's not a matter of politics or intelligence assessments, but survival.
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